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Israel-Hamas War

 



Israel-Hamas War

 

 This is a war that could rapidly spiral out of control and extend way beyond the Israel region. So let's examine what is happening.

Israel is currently bombarding Gaza where Hamas is based and they are intent on essentially flattening Gaza and eliminating Hamas out of existence entirely, they may be on the verge of sending troops into Gaza to reoccupy Gaza and they will then ensure that Hamas goes out of existence. We know that Hamas leadership is based in Qatar that's a whole different story we'll not go there but there's also the possibility that Israel may very rapidly find itself stuck in a two-front war because North of Israel (Southern Lebanon) you have Hezbollah which is another sworn enemy of Israel and there is some military action happening in that region. If Hezbollah invades or goes to war with Israel then the IDF may find itself over stretched because it will have to fight two fronts at the same time i.e. Northern Israel and the West Bank and then there's the possibility that Syria could get involved and Jordan could also get involved in all this and Israel has said that if Hezbollah starts a war with Israel then they will bomb Damascus and they will go after Bashar al- Assad and all that. But Hezbollah may anyway go ahead and start a new front against Israel. Now the thing is that Hezbollah and Hamas are both backed by Iran and Iran is a sworn enemy of Israel and its backer the US. So that's where things are complicated.

We also have the Saudi Arabia angle the major power in the Middle East region. It was on the verge of signing a peace deal with Israel which won’t be happening now. The Saudis have said that they are not going ahead with the negotiations which were supposedly in the final stage and Saudi Arabia has essentially blamed Israel for the war that's happening. Now if Israel finds itself in a two front War situation there is a possibility that it may start running out of ammunition because Israel has been sending large quantities of ammunition to Ukraine so what does Israel do if it's running out of ammunition? It can ask the US for ammunition, the US has also been sending large quantities of ammunition to Ukraine and so have all the European nations. So Israel may find itself on a sticky wicket it may face the possibility of running out of ammunition then it may ask the US to step into the War. The US is already sending an aircraft carrier and various Naval assets in the Mediterranean region to support Israel, these will be deployed in close proximity to Israel and they could then carry out air sorties and target Hezbollah if in case it's required and if it happens then that would take the conflict beyond its present geographical region.

 If Iran gets involved in some way then Iran is not in a position where it runs out of ammunition, it probably has lots of ammunition. So if Israel asks the US to Target Iran then Iran may get the just cause to go to all-out War. Iran has ballistic missiles, it has lots of assets, it has loitering munitions, the Kaman 22 drones and what not and it could target Israel directly, it could Target the US bases in the Middle East region and it could even target US warships. We know that the Iranians have the ability to tail and surveil US warships without the Americans realizing this is happening. So if Iran gets involved it's going to be a big configuration as they are not going to run out of ammunition and if they are in a position where they run out of ammunition then the Russians may resupply them because Iran and Russia have a good relationship, Iran has been selling these drones to Russia. China may also be on their side so you may soon see if things go in the direction that the war extends beyond where it is right now and if Israel finds itself really tight placed where they are in a corner, running out of ammunition, the US can't help them, then they can always fall back on the Samson Option which is that they nuke all their enemies. They have a reasonably good sized Nuclear Arsenal maybe 80 or 100 nuclear warheads. They could even do that if they are in a position where they have no option. Then Iran may also go nuclear, they may be close to having enough facile material for a couple of warheads or maybe more, who knows what the status of their nuclear capability is. So you can possibly see this war escalating very rapidly if Iran gets involved.

The India Middle East Europe Corridor (trade and transport corridor) that is now kind of dead in the water it's not going to happen that's great news for China, it's great news for Turkey as well and as Israel goes all out against Hamas and Gaza, the entire Islamic world could come together in opposition to Israel and Nations like Turkey, Egypt possibly Saudi Arabia may feel tempted to get involved in some way possibly militarily. So that's another avenue by which this war could escalate and spill out beyond the Israel region. We are in a very delicate situation right now, it's a very dangerous situation, things could escalate in a variety of ways and it’s kind of an inflection point in geopolitics right now. The 2020s were always supposed to be a decade of incredibly rapid geopolitical change and we are seeing all that right now. Ukraine is kind of forgotten right now the action is in the Middle East region in Israel and the surrounding area and who knows what direction this is going to take.

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